Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health

Original Article

Projection of Cancer Incidence and Mortality From 2020 to 2035 in the Korean Population Aged 20 Years and Older: Youjin Hong, Sangjun Lee, Sungji Moon, Soseul Sung, Woojin Lim, Kyungsik Kim, Seokyung An, Jeoungbin Choi, Kwang-Pil Ko, Inah Kim, Jung Eun Lee, Sue K. Park; J Prev Med Public Health. 2022;55(6):529-538. Published online October 17, 2022; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.22.128

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Abstract Summary PDF Supplementary Material

Objectives
This study aimed to identify the current patterns of cancer incidence and estimate the projected cancer incidence and mortality between 2020 and 2035 in Korea.
Methods
Data on cancer incidence cases were extracted from the Korean Statistical Information Service from 2000 to 2017, and data on cancer-related deaths were extracted from the National Cancer Center from 2000 to 2018. Cancer cases and deaths were classified according to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th edition. For the current patterns of cancer incidence, age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) and age-standardized mortality rates were investigated using the 2000 mid-year estimated population aged over 20 years and older. A joinpoint regression model was used to determine the 2020 to 2035 trends in cancer.
Results
Overall, cancer cases were predicted to increase from 265 299 in 2020 to 474 085 in 2035 (growth rate: 1.8%). The greatest increase in the ASIR was projected for prostate cancer among male (7.84 vs. 189.53 per 100 000 people) and breast cancer among female (34.17 vs. 238.45 per 100 000 people) from 2000 to 2035. Overall cancer deaths were projected to increase from 81 717 in 2020 to 95 845 in 2035 (average annual growth rate: 1.2%). Although most cancer mortality rates were projected to decrease, those of breast, pancreatic, and ovarian cancer among female were projected to increase until 2035.
Conclusions
These up-to-date projections of cancer incidence and mortality in the Korean population may be a significant resource for implementing cancer-related regulations or developing cancer treatments.

Summary

Korean summary
최근 고령화 시대로 접어들고 암의 위험요인들에 대한 노출률이 변화함에 따라 암의 발생률 및 사망률에 대해서 관찰하는 것은 중요한 일이 되었다. 따라서, 본 연구는 한국인에서 2035년까지의 암에 대한 발생률과 사망률을 Joinpoint regression 모델을 이용하여 예측하였다. 남성에서는 전립선암, 여성에서는 유방암이 연령표준화 발생률이 가장 높았으며 대부분의 연령표준화 사망률은 감소하는 것으로 예상되지만 여성의 유방암, 췌장암, 난소암이 증가될 것으로 예상된다.

Citations

Citations to this article as recorded by

Changes in metabolic syndrome and the risk of breast and endometrial cancer according to menopause in Korean women
Thi Xuan Mai Tran, Soyeoun Kim, Boyoung Park
Epidemiology and Health.2023; 45: e2023049. CrossRef

Correspondence

Social and Policy Determinants of COVID-19 Infection Across 23 Countries: An Ecological Study: Kyungsik Kim, Sue K. Park; J Prev Med Public Health. 2022;55(3):308-309. Published online May 31, 2022; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.22.171; [Original]

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PDF: Summary

Original Article

Social and Policy Determinants of COVID-19 Infection Across 23 Countries: An Ecological Study: Kyungsik Kim, Young-Do Jeung, Jeoungbin Choi, Sue K. Park; J Prev Med Public Health. 2022;55(2):144-152. Published online February 10, 2022; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.21.396

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Abstract Summary PDF Supplementary Material

Objectives
This study aimed to identify the social and policy determinants of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection across 23 countries.
Methods
COVID-19 indicators (incidence, mortality, and fatality) for each country were calculated by direct and indirect standardization. Multivariable regression analyses were used to identify the social and policy determinants of COVID-19 infection.
Results
A higher number of doctors per population was related to lower incidence, mortality, and fatality rates of COVID-19 in 23 countries (β=-0.672, -0.445, and -0.564, respectively). The number of nurses/midwives per population was associated with lower mortality and fatality rates of COVID-19 in 23 countries (β=-0.215 and -0.372, respectively). Strengthening of policy restriction indicators, such as restrictions of public gatherings, was related to lower COVID-19 incidence (β=-0.423). A national Bacillus Calmette–Guérin vaccination policy conducted among special groups or in the past was associated with a higher incidence of COVID-19 in 23 countries (β=0.341). The proportion of the elderly population (aged over 70 years) was related to higher mortality and fatality rates (β=0.209 and 0.350, respectively), and income support was associated with mortality and fatality rates (β=-0.362 and -0.449, respectively).
Conclusions
These findings do not imply causality because this was a country-based correlation study. However, COVID-19 transmission can be influenced by social and policy determinants such as integrated health systems and policy responses to COVID-19. Various social and policy determinants should be considered when planning responses to COVID-19.

Summary

Korean summary
본 연구는 23개국의 코로나 19 감염 지표 (발생, 사망, 치명)과 관련있는 사회적, 정책적 요소를 확인하고자 하는생태학적 연구이다. 이는 코로나 19 감염 지표에 대한 인과성을 제시하는 연구가 아니기에 주의 깊은 해석이 필요하며 본 연구에서 제시한 사회적, 정책적 요소를 통해 코로나 19 감염에 대한 국가적인 정책을 고려할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

Citations

Citations to this article as recorded by

COVID 19 mortality as a reflection of the quality of health in EU countries
Beáta Stehlíková, Zuzana Vincúrová, Ivan Brezina, Ilona Švihlíková
Economics & Sociology.2023; 16(3): 138. CrossRef
Social and Policy Determinants of COVID-19
Rujittika Mungmunpuntipantip, Viroj Wiwanitkit
Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health.2022; 55(3): 307. CrossRef
Social and Policy Determinants of COVID-19 Infection Across 23 Countries: An Ecological Study
Kyungsik Kim, Sue K. Park
Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health.2022; 55(3): 308. CrossRef
Country-level and regional COVID-19 burden and determinants across OECD member states and partner countries
Nlandu Roger Ngatu, Kazuto Tayama, Kanae Kanda, Tomohiro Hirao
Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine.2022; 27: 41. CrossRef
The association between tobacco or nicotine product use behaviors and non-compliance with mask-wearing during the COVID-19 pandemic: a cross-sectional study in Korea
Da-eun Lee, Heewon Kang, Sung-il Cho
Epidemiology and Health.2022; 44: e2022087. CrossRef

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